This afternoon I read a Politico article reporting that West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin is considering running for reelection to the Senate, after having said his 2018 campaign would be his last.
I wanted to highlight two quotes from the article. The first concerns electability:
Trump just won West Virginia by nearly 40 points, but Manchin says the “right candidate” can keep his Senate seat blue. He doesn’t go beyond that, but the truth is that Manchin is probably the only one who fits that description.
And the second concerns Manchin’s pivotal role in a 50-50 Senate (emphasis mine):
It’s possible, but unlikely, that Manchin will remain this dominant in the Senate for three years, depending on the chamber's balance after the midterms. He even acknowledges that if Democrats had a larger majority, he might not be able to help force bipartisan negotiations on a party that's otherwise mostly comfortable going it alone.
“It makes me more encouraged that the place can work,” Manchin said of the current dynamic in the Senate. “I’m not naive to think that if [Democrats] had 52 or 53 they wouldn't be like: ‘Katie, bar the door.’ Or ‘balls to the wall.’”
To state the obvious, Manchin is the only Democrat who can hold down that seat in West Virginia. Even in a favorable national environment in 2018, his race was close. He can only defy trends in realignment for so long; if he runs in 2024 he is still likely to lose because he’ll be on the ballot in a presidential year and West Virginia is a very red state.
Nonetheless, I hope he runs for reelection. Yes, Joe Manchin is often criticized by liberals because of his moderate views and attempts at bipartisanship in the face of GOP obstruction. But while they may not be fond of Manchin, progressives should choose him in a heartbeat over the generic Republican senator who would take his seat should he retire or lose. They should also realize that if Sen. Manchin was purely motivated by political self-interest, he would’ve switched parties years ago. The fact that Manchin chooses to remain a Democrat and vote with the party as much as he does indicates that his views, good or bad, are genuinely held. For what it’s worth, he does seem to genuinely be committed to finding some common ground with the other side, something often lacking in contemporary politics.
Even if he runs, Manchin will be the underdog and is more likely to lose than not, but with him on the ballot, Democrats will at least have a chance to hold onto the seat and keep delivering for the American people.